[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 11 issued 2334 UT on 26 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 27 10:34:54 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.5 0228UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.0 2019UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Moderate region 1387(S22W42) producing
two M-class flares, the largest an M2. Multiple CMEs have been
observed over the last 2 days in LASCO and STEREO. The M flare
from 1387 produced at 0227UT and the M flare at 1816UT on the
25th produced CMEs with significant components in the ecliptic,
according to STEREO imagery. In LASCO these all appear to be
directed predominantly towards the western limb and are not expected
to be significantly geo-effective. Some glancing blows from these
are possible. The M flare observed at 2030UT also appears to
be directed towards the western limb, no STEREO imagery is available
for this event yet. Another CME was produced from a long duration
C5 flare, peaking at 1150UT, originating from Region 1384(N13W00).
STEREO shows the CME has an ecliptic component. Some LASCO data
is missing in the hours following this event, however it appears
to be a partial halo event and is expected to be geoeffective.
Solar activity is expected to remain Moderate for the next 3
days. The solar wind conditions were normal over the last 24
hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 10101111
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 4 11211221
Learmonth 2 20001111
Norfolk Island 1 20000011
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 1 10100011
Hobart 1 10100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 8 23421111
Mawson 3 12110112
Davis 7 22222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1110 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 5 Quiet
28 Dec 25 Active
29 Dec 25 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be Quiet for
the next day. A possible CME strike on the 28th may cause Active
conditions with possible isolated minor storms. A further CME
is expected to impact early on the 29th with possible additional
glancing blows on this day from other events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
29 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec 120 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
28 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Dec 70 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced by up to 20% MUFs are expected for
the next day. Some geomagnetic activity is expected for the following
2 days which is expected to degrade the MUFs to around predicted
monthly values with some depressed periods possible, particularly
in southern parts of Australia and Antarctica.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 29300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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