[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 11 issued 2330 UT on 25 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 26 10:30:03 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.0 1816UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Moderate with newly emerged region
1387(S22W28) producing an M4 flare at 1816UT followed by a C7
at 2029UT. The M flare had a type II radio burst associated with
it with an estimated shock speed of around 1000km/s. Coronagraph
imagery from LASCO is not available. STEREO-A shows a large ejected
plasma cloud across the ecliptic. Combined with the location
of the flaring region this suggests the event will be geo-effective.
Further analysis will be made if more imagery from LASCO becomes
available. Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the
next 3 days due to region 1387. Solar wind conditions were normal
over the last day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 12110111
Darwin 5 22121212
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 2 12110101
Norfolk_Island 2 12100111
Camden 2 12110011
Canberra 2 12100010
Hobart 3 13210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie_Island 1 12100000
Casey 12 35321111
Mawson 6 34210000
Davis 9 23331122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 1
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 5 Quiet
27 Dec 5 Quiet
28 Dec 25 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 22 December
and is current for interval 25-26 December. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be Quiet for the next 2 days. A potential strike
from a CME on the 28th may cause Active conditions with possible
isolated minor storms. Characterisation of this event is not
yet complete due to missing data at time of writing. Further
information will be given when this becomes available.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
27 Dec 140 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
28 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to enhanced by up to 20% MUFs are expected for
the next 2 days. On day 3, MUFs may be reduced to around predicted
monthly values, with some chance of depressions, due to possible
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 55500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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