[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 11 issued 2328 UT on 20 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 21 10:28:42 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region
1376(N18W44) produce several flares the largest being a C2.1.
This region continues to grow as more flares are expected, with
some possibility of reaching M class. All other regions on the
visible sun appear to be stable of declining. Several CMEs were
observed, however significant data gaps in the LASCO and STEREO
imagery make definitive analysis difficult. From available observations
none appear to be earth directed. The solar wind speed was stable
at around 350 km/s over the last day and the IMF Bz component
ranged between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low
to Moderate over the next 3 days as there is some chance of isolated
M class flares from region 1376. The solar wind is expected to
remain undisturbed for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22221232
Darwin 13 33-32333
Townsville 9 32222232
Learmonth 8 32121232
Norfolk Island 5 22220122
Camden 7 22221132
Canberra 5 22220122
Hobart 6 23220121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 21110021
Casey 24 55532232
Mawson 17 42322353
Davis 20 33442352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1110 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 5 Quiet
22 Dec 5 Quiet
23 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
Quiet to Unsettled with some isolated minor storm periods in
Antarctica. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 120 0 to 20% above predicted monthly values
22 Dec 120 0 to 20% above predicted monthly values
23 Dec 110 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally enhanced MUFs were observed over most of the
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Normal HF conditions
with MUF enhancements are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 76500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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