[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 11 issued 2329 UT on 19 Dec 2011
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 20 10:29:07 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with only B class flares. There are many small sunspot regions
currently visible however none have significant flare probabilities.
The solar wind speed ranged between 300-400 km/s and the IMF
Bz component ranged between +/-7nT. Solar activity is expected
to be low for the next 3 days. Minor effects from a small coronal
hole may elevate the solar wind speed on day one. Solar wind
conditions are expected to be normal on days 2 and 3.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 23223232
Darwin 14 33233333
Townsville 11 23223233
Learmonth 10 23222233
Norfolk Island 9 23222232
Camden 10 23322232
Canberra 11 23323232
Hobart 11 23323232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 12202222
Casey 17 34523223
Mawson 18 43413252
Davis 19 34423252
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0001 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Dec 5 Quiet
22 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
Quiet to Unsettled with some isolated minor storm periods in
Antarctica. These conditions are expected to continue for the
next day (20th Nov UT), settling back to Quiet for days 2 and
3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
B
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 130 0 to 25% above predicted monthly values
21 Dec 130 0 to 25% above predicted monthly values
22 Dec 120 0 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally enhanced MUFs were observed over most of the
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Normal HF conditions
with MUF enhancements are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 260 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 13400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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