[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 17 09:52:21 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: C-class flare activity is possible from solar regions
1271 and 1272 which have recently rotated into view. Solar wind
speeds increased from approximately 450 to 650 km/s and then
again decreased to under 450 km/s over the period approximately
03-12 UT on 16 August. Solar wind parameters and imagery suggests
the observed increase in solar wind speeds were possibly due
to the tail end of an elongated coronal hole. Solar wind speeds
are expected to decline slowly over the next couple of days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 13232111
Darwin 8 23232112
Learmonth 9 23333021
Sydney 9 13333111
Canberra 5 02332000
Casey(Ant) 12 24333221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 4312 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Aug 6 Quiet
19 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly Quiet to Unsettled
during the past 24 hours with an isolated storm period at high
latitudes due to the influence of a coronal hole solar wind stream.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled to Quiet
over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Poor-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Poor-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Aug Poor-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at low latitudes
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed
at times at mid-high latitudes. Mild depressions are expected
at times over the next couple of days otherwise MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 30% at
times.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
18 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at equatorial regions
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed
at times over the Australian region. Mild depressions are expected
at times over the next 24 hours otherwise MUFs are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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