[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 16 09:49:30 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: C-class flare activity is possible from regions on the
east limb rotating onto the visible disk. Solar wind speeds continued
to decline over the past 24 hours and are presently below 450
km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly
over the next couple of days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 32222232
Darwin 8 22222232
Townsville 12 3-32233-
Learmonth 9 31222332
Sydney 8 32222222
Canberra 4 21111221
Casey(Ant) 10 33322222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 43 (Unsettled)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2222 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 10 Quiet to unsettled
17 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
18 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly Quiet to Unsettled
during the past 24 hours with some isolated storm periods at
high latitudes due to the influence of a coronal hole solar wind
stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled
to Quiet over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Poor-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
17 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at low latitudes
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed
at times at mid-high latitudes. Mild depressions are expected at times
over the next couple of days otherwise MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 20%.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Aug 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
18 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate depressions were observed at equatorial regions
at times during the past 24 hours with mild depressions observed
at times over the Australian region. Mild depressions are expected
at times over the next couple of days otherwise MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 77800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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