[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 14 09:49:19 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed first decreased from 380 km/s to 310 km/s
by 1800UT and then gradually increased to 350 km/s by around
2300UT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
remained mostly between +/-4nT during the day. Solar activity
is expected to stay at Very Low levels for the next 3 days. The
previously predicted strengthening of the solar wind stream from
a recurrent coronal hole may have started with the gradual increase
in the solar wind speed towards the end of 13 August as mentioned
above.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12101012
Darwin 3 12101012
Townsville 3 12101012
Learmonth 2 11101011
Canberra 0 01000001
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1212 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 8 Mostly Quiet, some Unsettled periods possible.
15 Aug 10 Unsettled to active
16 Aug 10 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today.
Conditinos may be expected to turn from Quiet to Unsettled levels
on 14 August as a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
coronal hole starts showing its effect. Geomagnetic conditions
may stay enhanced to Unsettled to Active levels due to the effect
of this corohal hole on 15 and 16 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
16 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions were observed during the last 24 hours. Minor
to mild degradations on 14 August and Minor to Moderate
degrdations on 15 and 16 August may be observed due to
expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on
these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 30% over the UT
day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 32 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
15 Aug 30 about 20% below predicted monthly values
16 Aug 30 about 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUFs showed minor to mild depressions across
the region. Minor to mild degradations on 14 August and Minor
to Moderate degradations on 15 and 16 August are possible due
to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 55100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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