[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 August 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 13 09:50:12 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z AUGUST 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed varied between 380 and 410 km/s for
most parts of the UT day today and the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained mostly between +/-4nT
during the day. Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low
levels for the next 3 days. The effect of a recurrent coronal
hole may strengthen the solar wind stream from 14 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11221111
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 4 11221111
Learmonth 2 11120011
Canberra 1 00210000
Hobart - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1111 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 5 Quiet
14 Aug 7 Mostly Quiet, some Unsettled periods possible.
15 Aug 10 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
today. Nearly similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected
on 13 August with the possibility of some enhancements late
on 14 August to Unsettled levels due to an expected effect
of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal
hole. The coronal hole effect may keep the activity levels
enhanced to Unsettled to Active levels on 15 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions were observed during the last 24 hours. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected on 13 August with the
possibility of minor to mild degradations on 14 August and
Minor to Moderate degrdations on 15 August due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels on these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by
20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 40 near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 38 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
15 Aug 32 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
25%
COMMENT: Regional MUFs showed minor to mild depressions across
the region. HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal
levels on 13 August. Minor to mild degradations on 14 August
and Minor to Moderate degradations on 15 August are possible
due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity levels
from late on 14 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 44300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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