[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 13 09:51:30 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today.There have been
3 C class flares from region AR1190(N15E12) over the
last 24 hours. The largest of these flares was a C3.1
flare at 0607UT. Solar wind speed gradually increased
from 450km/s to 600km/s. The IMF Bz mostly varied between
+/-10 nT staying southwards (around -10nT) between 04UT
and 09UT. Solar activity is expected to be low for the
next 2 days. Solar wind speed is expected to remain
elevated while the coronal hole effect continues probably
for one more day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 17 23354322
Darwin 14 33343322
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 18 33354322
Canberra 11 12343311
Hobart 17 22454312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 2012 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
14 Apr 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
15 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased up to active levels
with isolated periods of minor storm yesterday due to the
effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain enhanced upto
unsettled to active levels today and then gradually decline
to quiet levels over the following 2 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today with
periods of MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next three days with some possibility of minor
to mild degradations on high latitude locations on 13 April due
to the possibility of enhancements in geomagnetic activity on
this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 65 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
15%.
14 Apr 67 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
20%.
15 Apr 68 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by
20%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed yesterday
with some enhancements in MUFs. Nearly similar conditions are
expected for the next three days with the possibility of some
degradations on high latitudes on 13 April due to expected
enhancements in geomagnetic activity on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 52100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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