[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 12 09:32:29 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: The active regions on the disc remained stable. Newly
appeared region AR1190(N12E29) produced C1 flares at 1602UT and
2030UT. Solar wind speed increased gradually from 300km/s at
05UT to 500km/s. This increase is probably due to coronal hole
effects. Bz is fluctuating between 0 to 10nT. Solar activity
is expected to be low for the next few days. Solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated while the coronal hole effects
continue for the next 2 days. A glancing blow from a CME observed
on 09Apr is possible late on 12Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 21222221
Darwin 7 21222322
Learmonth 9 21223331
Canberra 3 00112221
Hobart 4 11112221
Casey(Ant) 9 33-22222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2000 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 6 Quiet
13 Apr 5 Quiet
14 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions with isolated Unsettled periods
are expected on 12Apr due to coronal hole effects. A possible
glancing blow from a CME late on 12Apr April might contribute
to a possible increase in geomagnetic activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 41400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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