[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 8 09:33:25 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Recent CME activity near the east and west limbs is
not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed remains slightly
elevated but is declining. Bz is fluctuating between +/- 5nT.
Coronol hole effects are likely to result in mildly elevated
solar wind speed on 09Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 21100111
Darwin 3 21110112
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 1 --100110
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 2 21100011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 26 3314 6533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 7 Quiet
09 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
10 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are
expected from late on 09Apr due to an anticipated coronal hole
wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions are likely at times for high latitude
regions from 9 April due to expected coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to Depressed by 15% over the UT
day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
09 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced.
10 Apr 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions are possible at times for southern
regions from 9 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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