[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 7 09:51:37 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 117/69 117/69 117/69
COMMENT: Region 1184 (N16W41) increased in area and spot number.
Follwing the weak shock observed at approximately 18UT on 5 April
sustained periods of southward IMF have been observed at times.
Solar wind speeds have been mildly elevated over the past 24
hours at approximately 500-600 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to decline over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 19 32154433
Darwin 23 321545-3
Learmonth 26 --154533
Canberra 12 22044322
Hobart 21 32155432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 2112 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly quiet to unsettled
in the fisrt half of the UT day of 6 April. Minor storm periods
were observed at Australian region latitudes in the latter half
of the UT day as the result sustained periods of southward IMF.
Major storm periods were observed at high latitudes. Mostly quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 2 days with
a possible increase in activity on 9 April due to an anticipated
coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions were observed for
low-mid latitudes over the past 24 hours. Mildly depressed conditions
were observed at times for mid-high latitude regions. Mostly
normal to enhanced conditions are expected for the next few days
with mild depressions possible at times for mid-high latitude
regions on 9 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 75% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% to depressed up to 25% for southern
most regions during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed at times
over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
08 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
09 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions were observed for
the Australian region over the past 24 hours. Mildly depressed
conditions were observed for southern most Australian regions
during local night of 6 April as the result of recent geomagnetic
activity. Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for
the next few days with mild depressions possible at times for
southern regions on 9 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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