[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 5 09:47:33 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: There is a slight chance for an isolated M classs flare
from region 1183(N16W38) during the next 2 days. Solar wind speed
fluctuated around 580km/s and dropped to 480km/s after 12UT.
Bz fluctuated between -4/2nT for most of the reporting period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 23121201
Darwin 6 232-1201
Learmonth 5 32111201
Canberra 2 12120100
Hobart 5 23121200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 4333 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 7 Quiet
06 Apr 5 Quiet
07 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated Unsettled periods possible at higher latitudes
on day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Near predicted monthly values after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted to depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
06 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
07 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 591 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 202000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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