[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 11
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 4 09:31:55 EST 2011
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Region 1184(N15E03) grew during the reporting period.
A long-duration C-class event commenced at ~02UT, peaking at
not expected to be geo-effective. Solar wind speed remained elevated,
decreasing from 650 to 550km/s. Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT
for most of the reporting period. An isolated M-class event is
possible. Solar wind speed is expected to subside over the next
2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active periods at higher latitudes.
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 32233233
Darwin 12 32333223
Townsville 15 3-------
Learmonth 12 32233233
Canberra 7 22232122
Hobart 12 32243232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20 4334 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr 7 Quiet
06 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at higher latitudes
on day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-30% from 02-11UT.
Enhanced by 30-55% from 11-20UT.
Near predicted values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15-30% from 03-14UT.
Enhanced by 25-40% from 14-20UT.
Near predicted values at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by up to 50% from 05-14UT.
Near predicted values at other times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by up to 45% from 04-13UT.
Near predicted values at other times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted values to depressed by 20%.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
05 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
06 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
COMMENT: High latitudes can expect occasional depressions to
25% on day 1.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 580 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 279000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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