[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 22 09:39:29 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours.
A C1 flare peaked at 0753 UT. As anticipated solar wind
speed increased upto approximately 450 km/s today. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated
between +/-5nT until 0600UT and then stayed slightly positive
(around +3nT) for most parts of the remaining day. This
strengthening in the solar wind stream may continue on 22
and possibly 23 September due to a recurrent coronal hole
being in a geoeffective position through this period. Solar
wind stream is then expected to again weaken to more normal
levels. Flare activity of C-class levels may be observed over
the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to stay at low
levels over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 23220001
Darwin 3 22210002
Townsville 6 23221111
Learmonth 4 23210002
Canberra 2 12110000
Hobart 4 13220001
Casey(Ant) 9 34321101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0201 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 18 Unsettled to active
23 Sep 14 Mostly unsettled, active periods possible.
24 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions
were observed over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity
may continue to show enhancements upto active levels on 22
and 23 September due to the effect of a high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity
is then expected to gradually decline to quiet levels on
24 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
over the last 24 hours with some degradations on high latitude
circuits. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions and
MUF depressions may be expected on high and possibly on mid
latitude locations over the next 2 days due to some expected
continued rise in geomagnetic activity on these days. HF
conditons are expected to return to mostly normal levels on
most locations on the third day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 36 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Sep 36 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Sep 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with isolated periods
of minor depressions were observed across Australian/NZ
regions today. Some degradation in HF conditions in the
Australian/NZ region may continue to be expected on 22 and
23 September due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity
on these days. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected
in this region on 23 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 23900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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