[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 21 09:53:19 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep:  83/24

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Sep             22 Sep             23 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    83/24              83/24              84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours. 
A C2 flare peaked at 1945 UT. Solar wind speed fluctuated 
between 320 and 350 km/s during the UT day. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field mostly stayed close to 
the normal value during the UT day today. Solar wind stream 
is expected to get stronger on 21 and 22 Sepctember due to 
an expected high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent 
coronal hole. C-class flare may be observed over the next 
24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low 
over the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11111221
      Darwin               4   11111221
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            4   11111221
      Canberra             0   00000110
      Hobart               4   11111221
      Casey(Ant)           6   23211212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Sep    18    Quiet to active. 
22 Sep    15    Unsettled to active 
23 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 18 September 
and is current for interval 20-21 September. Mostly quiet 
geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic 
activity may rise from quiet to active levels on 21 and stay at 
quiet to unsettled levels on 22 September due to the effect of 
a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole. 
Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decline to 
quiet levels on 23 September. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
22 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations 
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be 
expected for low latitude locations for the next 3 days. Minor 
to moderate degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions 
may be expected on high and possibly on mid latitude locations 
over the next 2 days due to some expected rise in geomagnetic 
activity on these days. HF conditons are expected to return to 
mostly normal levels on most locations on the third day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Sep    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 60% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Sep    32    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
22 Sep    30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
23 Sep    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Noted mostly near predicted monthly values with normal 
ionospheric support during the last 24 hours with enhancements 
noted in the Australian region. Some degradation in HF conditions 
in the Australian/NZ region may be expected on 21 and 22 September 
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity on these days. 
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in this region on 
23 September. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    30500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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