[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 21 09:53:19 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was low during the last 24 hours.
A C2 flare peaked at 1945 UT. Solar wind speed fluctuated
between 320 and 350 km/s during the UT day. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field mostly stayed close to
the normal value during the UT day today. Solar wind stream
is expected to get stronger on 21 and 22 Sepctember due to
an expected high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
coronal hole. C-class flare may be observed over the next
24 hours. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low
over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11111221
Darwin 4 11111221
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 4 11111221
Canberra 0 00000110
Hobart 4 11111221
Casey(Ant) 6 23211212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 18 Quiet to active.
22 Sep 15 Unsettled to active
23 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 18 September
and is current for interval 20-21 September. Mostly quiet
geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic
activity may rise from quiet to active levels on 21 and stay at
quiet to unsettled levels on 22 September due to the effect of
a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent coronal hole.
Geomagnetic activity is then expected to gradually decline to
quiet levels on 23 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for low latitude locations for the next 3 days. Minor
to moderate degradations in HF conditions and MUF depressions
may be expected on high and possibly on mid latitude locations
over the next 2 days due to some expected rise in geomagnetic
activity on these days. HF conditons are expected to return to
mostly normal levels on most locations on the third day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 60% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 32 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
22 Sep 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Sep 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Noted mostly near predicted monthly values with normal
ionospheric support during the last 24 hours with enhancements
noted in the Australian region. Some degradation in HF conditions
in the Australian/NZ region may be expected on 21 and 22 September
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity on these days.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in this region on
23 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 30500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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