[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 16 09:07:20 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 85/27 86/29
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed decreased from 420km/s to 340km/s during the
UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field was between +/-5nT
over the same period. LASCO C2 and C3 imagery showed a CME on the
north-west limb, first visible on 15/1918UT image. CME is not
expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 32131001
Darwin 4 21131001
Townsville 8 32232122
Learmonth 5 32131000
Canberra 2 21020000
Hobart 3 21121001
Casey(Ant) 7 33330001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 70 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 1232 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 4 Quiet
17 Sep 4 Quiet
18 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Active levels at high
latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near predicted monthly values with normal ionospheric
support for the the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 58700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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