[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 15 09:04:25 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 83/24 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low during the last 24 hours.
Expect B-class flares from region 1106 with a slight chance of
an isolated C-class X-ray flare during the next three days. Solar
wind speed increased from 280km/s to 390km/s over the last 24
hours. The interplanetary magnetic field was between +6/-10nT
over the same period. The increase in solar wind parameters was
most likely due to the glancing blow from CME associated with
an erupting filament on 11 September. LASCO C3 imagery showed
a CME on the north-west limb, first visible on 14/1230UT image.
This is a backside event, confirmed by STEREO COR1 and COR2 imagery
and is not expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 12321322
Darwin 8 12321322
Townsville 9 12322332
Learmonth 7 12222322
Canberra 3 01211211
Hobart 6 12211322
Casey(Ant) 8 23321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 6 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Sep 4 Quiet
17 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Active to Minor Storm
levels at high latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slight to moderately depressed MUFs expected today,
15 September, due to an increase in geomagnetic activity resulting
from CME arrival. Expect near predicted monthly values with normal
ionospheric support for the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 20200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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