[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 12 09:53:25 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Sep             13 Sep             14 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
LASCO C3 imagery from 0618UT onwards shows a semi-halo CME produced 
by an erupting filament located in the north east quadrant could 
be geoeffective. New region 1106 rotated on disc and was the 
source of numerous B-class events. Solar wind speed decreased 
over the UT day from 400km/s at 00UT to be 350km/s at the time 
of this report. The north-south component of the IMF, Bz ranged 
between +3nT and -1nT over the UT day. Possible increase in solar 
wind parameters over the next 2 days due to a minor coronal hole 
becoming geoeffective and todays partial halo CME. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low over the next few days with the slight 
chance of a C-class event. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111001
      Darwin               1   11101001
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Learmonth            1   11011001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   11000001
      Casey(Ant)           4   13310001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              86   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1100 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Sep     6    Quiet 
13 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 
hours. Possible Unsettled conditions with Active periods for 
13Sep-14Sep due to mild coronal hole effects and a moderate
geomagnetic disturbance from todays partial halo CME from an 
erupting filament. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Sep    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Sep    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
13 Sep    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
14 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs during local day for Northern AUS and 
during local night for Southern AUS/NZ regions over the last 
24 hours. Mostly normal ionospheric support for Equatorial and 
Antarctic regions for the first half of the UT day. Depressed 
MUFs ranging from 10%-20% possible for low to mid latitudes over 
the next 3 days. Possible disturbed conditions for high to 
mid latitdues on 13Sep-14Sep due to increased geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   111000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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