[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 11 09:40:36 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 77/16 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed decreased over the UT day from 460km/s at 00UT
to be 400km/s at the time of this report. The north-south component
of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-3nT over the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low over the next few days with the visible
disc currently spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 12110101
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 4 12211121
Learmonth 2 21010100
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11100101
Casey(Ant) 6 33310001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 116 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1001 2202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 6 Quiet
12 Sep 6 Quiet
13 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions expected for the next 2 days with
possible Unsettled periods for 13Sep due to minor coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Sep 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs during local night for Equatorial regions
and normal ionospheric support for Northern AUS, Southern AUS/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions. Similar conditions expected for the next 3 days with
continued depressed MUFs ~20% for low latitudes and disturbed
conditions for high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 46100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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