[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 4 09:06:52 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Sep             05 Sep             06 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              76/14

COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased from 460 to 390 over the 
UT day. The solar wind is expected to return to slightly elevated 
levels later in the UT day, 4 September, and expect to remain 
slightly elevated for the following two days due to weak recurrent 
coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 
+/-3nT over last 24 hours. Emerging flux region 11105 may produce 
an isolated C-class flare, otherwise expect Very Low solar activity 
over the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            2   12011000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   10011001
      Casey(Ant)           4   23211010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             9   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2223 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Sep     6    Quiet 
05 Sep    14    Unsettled to Active 
06 Sep    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect mostly Quiet Geomagnetic conditions early in 
the UT day, 4 September, with Unsettled to Active coditions later 
in the UT day. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions with isolated 
cases of Active conditions, particularly at high latitudes over 
the following two days due to slightly elevated solar wind speed. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Sep    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  28

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Sep    20    near predicted monthly values 
05 Sep    20    near predicted monthly values 
06 Sep    20    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Slightly depressed MUFs were noted in the Australian 
region during local night time hours. Expect near monthly predited 
values for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   116000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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