[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 17 10:41:07 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.9 1912UT possible lower East Pacific/
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 88/32
COMMENT: Active region (AR) 1112 produced an M-class flare at
16/1912UT. This flare was associated with a 1N H-alpha flare,
observed at Holloman Solar observatory, and also had associated
radio burst activity, reported by San Vito Solar Observatory,
including a Tenflare and Type II sweep. AR 1112 continues to
show a complex magnetic structure on the GONG magnetograms and
has a moderate chance of producing C and/or M class xray flares
over the next 24 hours. The solar wind veolcity ranged between
380 and 310 over the UT day and is expected to remain in this
range or slightly above for the next two days. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was between +4/-6 nT over
the last 24 hours. On 19 October there is likely to be a increase
in solar wind due to a coronal hole reaching its geoeffective
location on the solar disc. There is also a possiblity of a slight
increase in proton flux today, 17 October (inferred by Tenflare)
and further geoeffective activity on 19 or 20 October due to
the Type II sweep (inferred CME).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 22112222
Darwin 5 22101222
Townsville 14 33323333
Learmonth 6 22102322
Canberra 4 11002222
Hobart 4 11102222
Casey(Ant) 8 33212222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 0101 1131
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 6 Quiet
18 Oct 6 Quiet
19 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet at all latitudes.
Expect this trend to continue for the next two days, On 19 October
expect an increase in geomagnetic activity with mostly unsettled
conditions and isolated cases of active to minor storm conditions
at high latitudes due to increase speed in solar wind associated
with coronal hole and CME (inferred by Type II sweep).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: There is a slight possibility of a weak short wave fade
at high latitudes due to an increase in proton flux that may
occur today, 17 October, inferred by Tenflare burst occurring
at 16/1916 UT. Otherwise, expect near predicted MUF values for
the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 25500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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