[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 2 09:43:19 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 84/26 81/22
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on today. Solar wind
speed gradually decreased from 390 to 360 km/s during the UT
day and IMF Bz stayed close to the normal value (between +/-4 nT)
during this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at very
low to low levels for the next three days with the possibility
of C-class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22110101
Darwin 3 22100102
Townsville 5 22111222
Learmonth 3 12110102
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Casey(Ant) 6 33210102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 16 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Oct 5 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
03 Oct 5 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
04 Oct 5 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar level of activity may be expected for the next
3 days with the possbility of isolated unsetteled periods due
to a recurrence pattern.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Oct 29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Oct 32 near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 32 near predicted monthly values
04 Oct 32 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Australian/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 61300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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