[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 1 10:23:03 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 87/30 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on 30 September. Solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 440 to 380 km/s during
the UT day and IMF Bz stayed close to the normal value during
this period. Solar activity is expected to stay at low levels
for the next three days with the possibility of C-class flare
activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 2 11110102
Townsville 6 22121222
Learmonth 3 21111201
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00110000
Casey(Ant) 5 22320111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 1310 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Oct 4 Quiet
02 Oct 4 Quiet
03 Oct 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods
possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet
levels on 30 September. Similar level of activity may be
expected on 01 and 02 October. Recurrence pattern suggests
some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 03 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Oct Normal Normal Normal
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Sep 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Oct 34 near predicted monthly values
02 Oct 34 near predicted monthly values
03 Oct 32 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Australian/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 83400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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