[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 30 10:07:58 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Region
1057 (N15W08) remains a magnetic beta-class spot group, and Region
1059 (S23E50) a stable Alpha. Solar activity is expected to be
low over the next three days, with a slight chance for an M-class
flare, particularly if region 1057 develops further in complexity.
Solar wind speed declined over the period and is expected to
remain low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Darwin 3 11101211
Townsville 3 11111220
Learmonth 4 21112211
Canberra 1 00001200
Hobart 5 11112311
Casey(Ant) 5 22221211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 0322 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 5 Quiet
31 Mar 5 Quiet
01 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect
mostly Quiet conditions next three days. Isolated active periods
possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
31 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
01 Apr 28 Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
COMMENT: Significant MUF enhancements observed throughout the
region over the past 24 hours, particularly overnight at mid-
and S.Aus latitudes. Expect generally enhanced conditions next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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