[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar:  86/29

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    88/32              88/32              88/32

COMMENT: Region 1057 (N15E04) produced a number of subflares. 
The solar wind speed ranged between about 380 and 460 km/s while 
the IMF Bz component range was +/- 6 nT. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to remain somewhat disturbed today and day two. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active period at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 28 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   13222111
      Darwin               5   12222112
      Townsville           6   13222211
      Learmonth            5   22122211
      Canberra             3   02122000
      Hobart               5   12222111
      Casey(Ant)           9   34222211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   2200 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar     6    Quiet to unsettled 
30 Mar     7    Quiet to unsettled 
31 Mar     7    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at high latitudes
particularly day two. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Mar    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-01, 20-23 UT with
      enhancements to 40% at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 35%
      08-17 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-05 UT. Enhanced to
      40% 06 UT onwards.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
30 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
31 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 388 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    73900 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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