[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 14 10:06:56 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 93/38 94/40
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours
with several B-class x-ray flares from NOAA active region (AR)
1054. This region has grown in spot number and magnetic complexity
and is expected to continue to produce B-class flares and has
a moderate chance of producing a C-class flare. Expect Very Low
to Low solar activity over the next three days. The solar wind
speed was decreased from 520 to 400 km/s over the last 24 hours
and is expected to remain below 400 km/s during the UT day 14
March. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
was between +/-2nT. Expect a solar sector boundry crossing on
15 March along with a prolonged southerly Bz observed with STEREO
behind spacecraft IMPACT instrumentation 4 days ago that may
be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 12211221
Darwin 3 11110221
Townsville 4 11111221
Learmonth 4 22110221
Hobart 4 11211221
Casey(Ant) 8 23311231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 2422 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 6 Quiet
15 Mar 12 Unsettled
16 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Mostly Quiet with isolated
cases of Unsettled and Active levels at high latitudes. Expect
mostly Quiet conditions today, 14 March. On 15-16 March expect
periods of Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated cases
of Active levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 75% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
15 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
16 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal to moderately enhanced HF conditions are
expected for the next 3 days due to an increase in EUV levels.
Noted spread F over Hobart during the local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 525 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 250000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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