[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 13 10:08:23 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 94/40 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the the last 24 hours with
several B-class x-ray flares and one C2.3-class flare from NOAA
active region (AR) 1054 peaking at 12/1827UT. This region is
expected to continue to produce B-class flares and has a moderate
chance of producing a C-class flare. Expect Very Low to Low solar
activity over the next three days. The solar wind speed was variable
and ranged between 580 and 480 over the last 24 hours. Expect
the solar wind to decrerase over the UT day, 13 March. Recurrence
trends and Stereo STEREO behind spacecraft indicate that another
prolonged southerly Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field may occur on 14 March. A coronal mass ejection occurred
late in the UT day 11 March on the east limb, however is not
expected to be geo-effective.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 23223311
Darwin 9 23223311
Townsville 8 13223311
Learmonth 7 22123311
Hobart 9 23223311
Casey(Ant) 14 -4-33322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3332 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 6 Quiet
14 Mar 12 Unsettled
15 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled at low to
mid latitudes and Unsettled to Active with isolated cases of
Minor Storm levels at high latitudes. The activity was associated
with an increase in the solar wind speed. Any Pronounced southward
Bz component in the IMF is likely to result in similar conditions
over the next three days. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
be mostly Quiet 13 March, however may increase to previous levels
on 14-15 March based on recurrence trends.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
14 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
15 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal to moderately enhanced HF conditions are
expected for the next 3 days due to an increase in EUV levels.
However, There was a noted slight depression at high latitudes
as a result of isolated cases of Minor Storm conditions the Earth's
magnetic field.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list