[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 11 10:46:30 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours
with two B-class x-ray flares. The first B-class flare peaked
at 0713UT and was associated with a CME on the north-east limb,
first noted on the LASCO C2 images at 0654UT 10 March. This is
not expected to be geo-effective. The other B-class flare was
produced from active region 1054. This region and the emerging
flux region at S23W02 have heighten plage levels at this time
and may produce more B-class flares with a sight chance of
C-Class flares over the next three days. Solar wind speed ranged
between 340 and 460 over the last 24 hours and is expected to
remain in this range or slightly below. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward or near neutral
until approximately 1330UT 10 March where it has since maintain a
mostly prolong southward orientation peaking at -6nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22212322
Darwin 7 22112322
Townsville 8 22213322
Learmonth 9 22113323
Hobart 7 22212322
Casey(Ant) 14 34-32323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 6 Quiet
12 Mar 4 Quiet
13 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled at low to
mid latitudes and Unsettled to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes.
Most of the Unsettled to Minor Storm conditions resulted from
a prolong southerly Bz and a slight increase in solar wind speed
beginning around 1330 UT 10 March. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to return to mostly Quiet levels during the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
12 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
13 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Mostly normal to moderately enhanced HF conditions are
expected for the next 3 days due to an increase in EUV levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 48700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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