[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 11 10:46:30 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar:  80/20

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              82/23              82/23

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours 
with two B-class x-ray flares. The first B-class flare peaked 
at 0713UT and was associated with a CME on the north-east limb, 
first noted on the LASCO C2 images at 0654UT 10 March. This is 
not expected to be geo-effective. The other B-class flare was 
produced from active region 1054. This region and the emerging 
flux region at S23W02 have heighten plage levels at this time 
and may produce more B-class flares with a sight chance of 
C-Class flares over the next three days. Solar wind speed ranged 
between 340 and 460 over the last 24 hours and is expected to 
remain in this range or slightly below. The Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northward or near neutral 
until approximately 1330UT 10 March where it has since maintain a 
mostly prolong southward orientation peaking at -6nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22212322
      Darwin               7   22112322
      Townsville           8   22213322
      Learmonth            9   22113323
      Hobart               7   22212322
      Casey(Ant)          14   34-32323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar     6    Quiet 
12 Mar     4    Quiet 
13 Mar     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled at low to 
mid latitudes and Unsettled to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes. 
Most of the Unsettled to Minor Storm conditions resulted from 
a prolong southerly Bz and a slight increase in solar wind speed 
beginning around 1330 UT 10 March. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to return to mostly Quiet levels during the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Mar    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   7

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
12 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 
13 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10 
                to 30%. 

COMMENT: Mostly normal to moderately enhanced HF conditions are 
expected for the next 3 days due to an increase in EUV levels. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    48700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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