[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 30 09:39:43 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low and is expected to remain
so for the next three days. Solar wind speed remains elevated
under the influence of a high-speed coronal hole wind stream.
The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-5nT with a sustained period
of negative bias during the mid-part of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 22222123
Darwin 7 22222123
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 7 12222123
Canberra 3 01121012
Hobart 7 12232113
Casey(Ant) 11 23------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3222 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
01 Jul 12 Unsettled
02 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly quiet at low
to mid latitudes. Brief unsettled periods observed at some stations
during the mid and latter parts of the UT day. Unsettled conditions
with isolated active to minor storm intervals observed at high
latitudes. Recurrence suggests elevated geomagnetic activity
possible days one and two of the forecast period. Isolated minor
storm periods possible mainly at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal to mildly depressed ionospheric conditions observed
throughout the region due to low EUV ionisation. Periods of sporadic-E
observed Cocos Islands local day. Generally weak ionospheric
conditions observed Antarctic region. Expect similar conditions
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 518 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 131000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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