[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 29 09:45:18 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jun             30 Jun             01 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              75/13              72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low and is expected to remain 
so for the next three days. Solar wind speed remains elevated 
under the influence of a high-speed coronal hole wind stream. 
The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-4nT over the UT day with no 
sustained periods of negative bias. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222321
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville          15   33333333
      Learmonth            8   22232321
      Canberra             2   11110200
      Hobart               4   21121210
      Casey(Ant)          12   33332322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            16   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13   3432 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jun    12    Unsettled 
30 Jun    12    Unsettled 
01 Jul    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly quiet at low 
to mid latitudes and unsettled at high latitudes. Expect similar 
conditions next three days due to an extensive solar coronal 
hole producing elevated solar wind parameters. Isolated minor 
storm periods possible at high latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jun    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jun    12    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
30 Jun    12    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
01 Jul    15    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly depressed ionospheric conditions observed throughout 
the region due to low EUV ionisation. Expect similar conditions 
next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 510 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   170000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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