[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 29 09:45:18 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low and is expected to remain
so for the next three days. Solar wind speed remains elevated
under the influence of a high-speed coronal hole wind stream.
The IMF Bz component fluctuated +/-4nT over the UT day with no
sustained periods of negative bias.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 22222321
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 8 22232321
Canberra 2 11110200
Hobart 4 21121210
Casey(Ant) 12 33332322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 3432 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 12 Unsettled
30 Jun 12 Unsettled
01 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly quiet at low
to mid latitudes and unsettled at high latitudes. Expect similar
conditions next three days due to an extensive solar coronal
hole producing elevated solar wind parameters. Isolated minor
storm periods possible at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 12 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 12 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 15 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly depressed ionospheric conditions observed throughout
the region due to low EUV ionisation. Expect similar conditions
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 170000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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