[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 23 09:01:32 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed ranged between 375km/s-320km/s over the UT day.
IMF Bz varied between +/-3nT. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low for the next 3 days with a slight chance of a C-class
x-ray flare due to emerging flux region 11082 (N26W39). STEREO
imagery showed earthward directed CME, COR1 first appearing at
0605UT and COR2 first appearing 1010UT. No noted associated activity
at this time. Possibly geo-effective in 4 days time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 3 22110111
Townsville 12 33332322
Learmonth 2 11121100
Canberra 0 02000000
Hobart 2 11111100
Casey(Ant) 3 12111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2130 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 4 Quiet
24 Jun 6 Quiet
25 Jun 24 active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for today and tomorrow.
On 25 June recurrent coronal hole reaches its geo-effective location.
Coronal hole appears to be weaker than last rotation based on
SOHO EIT imagery, still Unsettled to Active levels of geomagnetic
activity are expected with isolated cases of Minor Storm levels
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
25 Jun Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial
and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Ionospehric support
expected to be below monthly averages across all regions due
to reduced EUV ionisation/weak sunspot activity for the next
3 days, with MUF depressions of 10%-20% for low to mid latitudes.
Noted isolated cases of sporadic E in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 26800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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