[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 22 09:01:37 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JUNE 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Jun 23 Jun 24 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed ranged between 410km/s-365km/s over the UT day.
IMF Bz varied between +6/-3nT. Solar activity is expected to
be Very Low for the next 3 days with a slight chance of a C-class
x-ray flare due to emerging flux region 11082 (N26W23). Between
0207 and 1212 UT, 21 June, a disappearing solar filament was
noted in association with a weak CME in the northwest quadrant,
however is not expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 21310111
Darwin 4 21310021
Townsville 12 33322233
Learmonth 4 21310011
Canberra 1 10200000
Hobart 1 11200000
Casey(Ant) 3 22210110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Jun 4 Quiet
23 Jun 4 Quiet
24 Jun 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Jun 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 21 June
and is current for interval 21-22 June. Depressed MUFs observed
for Northern AUS/Equatorial during the UT day and Southern AUS/NZ
regions during local day. Ionospehric support expected to be
below monthly averages across all regions due to reduced EUV
ionisation/weak sunspot activity for the next 3 days, with MUF
depressions of 10%-20% for low to mid latitudes. Noted isolated
cases of sporadic E in the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 41800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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