[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 31 09:38:28 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Active region 1092 produced a few B-class flares over
the UT day. A NE limb CME was observed early in the UT day in
association with one of these flares. Solar wind speed remains
elevated at around 600 km/s under the influence of an extensive
N polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 21122222
Darwin 5 11121222
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 21122222
Canberra 4 11021212
Hobart 6 21132212
Casey(Ant) 8 3--22-22
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2322 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Aug 6 Quiet
02 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated at ~600km/s due to
an extensive N polar coronal hole. Bz was mostly neutral for
the first half of the UT day 30 Jul, with moderate fluctuations
to +/-4nT observed during the second half of the UT day. The
regional geomagnetic field was quiet at low to mid latitudes
with unsettled to active intervals later in the day at high latitudes
only. Expect mostly quiet conditions next three days with the
chance of unsettled periods, mainly at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day
with mild depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions after
local dawn. Periods of sporadic-E conditions observed local evening
Cocos Islands and Hobart. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions in the latter half of the UT day. Mostly normal ionospheric
support expected for the next 3 days with possible disturbed
periods for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 603 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 164000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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