[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 30 09:37:13 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 87/30 87/30 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with
region 1092 producing a B6.0 flare at 0138UT and a B7.5 flare
at 1843UT. The solar wind speed (Vsw) remains elevated due to
coronal hole effects and is currently ~600km/s at the time of
this report. Bz ranged between +/-3nT over the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low to Low for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 23232211
Darwin 6 22222112
Townsville 9 23232222
Learmonth 7 22223211
Canberra 6 22232101
Hobart 5 22232100
Casey(Ant) 15 34423322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Darwin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 7 (Quiet)
Gnangara 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 4333 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jul 6 Quiet
01 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. Solar wind speed (Vsw) remains elevated at ~600km/s
due to the recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream
(HSSWS) and is expected to remain so for the next 24-48 hours.
Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 30Jul and mostly Quiet
conditions expected for 31Jul-01Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
31 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values, enhanced 30% during
local dusk.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Jul 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for all regions over the
last 24 hours with only depressed MUF's during local night for
some Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Notable sporadic E for
Northern AUS/Equatorial stations. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic
regions in the latter half of the UT day. Mostly normal ionospheric
support expected for the next 3 days with possible MUF depressions
of 10%-20% for Northern AUS/Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed
periods for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 651 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 203000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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