[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 10

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul:  80/20

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Region 1087 (N21E30) appears stable in size; possible 
chance of an isolated C-class flare. Solar wind speed increased 
from about 290 to 360 km/s while the north-south component of 
the IMF ranged between +/-4 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected 
to be somewhat disturbed over the next three days due to the 
effects of a recurrent coronal hole. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               2   11101011
      Townsville          10   32223223
      Learmonth            2   11011011
      Canberra             0   10000001
      Hobart               0   10000000
      Casey(Ant)           2   11100121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1001 2213     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul     6    Quiet
14 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled 
15 Jul     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible at high latitudes over 
the next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Jul     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly 15-30% depressed. Sporadic E observed 15-20
      UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20%
      depressed. Night spread F observed at all stations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
14 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 
15 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. 

COMMENT: Spread F may degrade night circuits. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 272 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    16700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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