[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 12 09:49:23 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 85/27 83/24
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 1087 (N19E44) is growing and it produced a few B-class
flares today. Solar wind speed varied between 260 and 320 km/s
and the Bz component of the IMF stayed mostly between +/-5nT
through the day. Solar region 1087 may produce C-class flares.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low levels
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 13 23323333
Learmonth 3 11012111
Canberra 1 00002100
Hobart 1 00002100
Casey(Ant) 2 11101101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
13 Jul 15 Unsettled to active
14 Jul 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 12
July with some possibility of isolated unsettled peiods. Unsettled
to active on 13 and mostly unsettled levels on 14 July may be
expected due to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal
13 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations during the UT day today. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected on 12 July. Minor to moderate degradations
may be observed in HF conditions on 13 and 14 July due to
the possibility of rise in geomagnetic activity levels
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly values during local
day,
Nearr predicted monthly value.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly values during local
day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
13 Jul 12 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
14 Jul 13 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions of up to around 15%
observed during both local day and night for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions with notable sporadic E at times.
Ionosphere continues to remain weakly ionised due to very
low solar activity. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected on 12 July with some possibility of further
degradations on 13 and 14 July due to the possibility
of rise in geomagnetic activity levels from 12 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 313 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 27500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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