[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 8 09:49:49 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 75/13 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24
hours. A B1.6 flare peaked at 1746UT/07 July. Solar wind
speed showed a gradual decrease from 350 to 325 km/s
(approx) during the UT day today and the Bz component of
the IMF stayed between +/-2nT for most parts of the day.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 2 11100111
Townsville 9 23222223
Learmonth 1 11001110
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 0 00001000
Casey(Ant) 4 12111121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 2110 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 3 Quiet
09 Jul 3 Quiet
10 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with solar wind speed declining. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
09 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
10 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly fair to normal HF conditions were observed
on most locations during the UT day today. Nearly similar
conditions may be expected for the next three days as the
ionospheric ionisation continues to remain weak due to
continued very low solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% to near monthly predicted values
during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% to near predicted monthly values
during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 10 Depressed 10 to 20 %/near predicted monthly.
10 Jul 10 Depressed 10 to 20 %/near predicted monthly.
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions of up to around 20%
observed during both local day and night for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions with notable sporadic E at times.
Ionosphere continues to remain weakly ionised due to very
low solar activity. Expect similar variable MUF depressions
over the next 3 days due to low EUV/ionisation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 46700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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