[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 July 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 7 09:53:23 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JULY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
A long duration B-class flare peaked at 0312UT/06 July. This
flare was associated with a CME from the NW limb. This CME is
not earthward directed. Another B1 flare from region 1086 was
observed at 1011UT/06 July. Solar wind speed showed a gradual
decrease from 420 to 350 km/s (approx) during the UT day today
and the Bz component of the IMF stayed between +/-2nT for most
parts of the day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 10 23322223
Learmonth 1 22000000
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 0 10000000
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 4 Quiet
08 Jul 3 Quiet
09 Jul 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with solar wind speed declining. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
08 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
09 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly fair to normal HF conditions were observed on
most locations on 06 July. Nearly similar conditions may be
expected for the next three days as the ionospheric ionisation
continues to remain weak due to continued very low solar
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by
15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 10 Depressed 10 to 20 %/near predicted monthly.
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions of up to around 20% observed
during both local day and night for Northern AUS/Equatorial
regions with notable sporadic E at times. Ionosphere continues
to remain weakly ionised due to very low solar activity. Expect
similar variable MUF depressions over the next 3 days due to low
EUV/ionisation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 67400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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