[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 21 10:53:36 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0727UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 0749UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.8 1100UT possible lower European
M3.4 1755UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 84/26 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate.
Region 1041 was the source of four M-class events with M1.0 at
0727UT, M1.6 at 0749UT, M1.8 at 1059UT and M3.4 at 1755UT along
with numerous C-class flares. The solar wind speed increased
from 330km/s at 0000UT to be ~510km/s at the time of this report.
Solar wind parameters indicate the increase most likely due to
a co-rotating interaction region. The Interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component ranged between +8nT and -16nT with sustained
southward periods between 11UT and 22UT. Solar activity is expected
to be Low to Moderate for the next 3 days with continued C-class
and occasional M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 22123433
Darwin 12 21113434
Townsville 10 21123333
Learmonth 13 -3123433
Canberra 5 10002332
Hobart 9 -1113333
Casey(Ant) 16 -3333433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Active over the
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 21Jan-22Jan.
Quiet conditions are expected for 23Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions observed for all regions
over the last 24 hours. Enhanced conditions during local night
for Northern AUS and Equatorial regions with variable conditions
during local day. Continued sporadic E for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Mostly normal HF conditons expected for all regions over the
next 24 hours with continued enhanced periods for Northern
AUS/Equatorial regions. Possible disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions
due to slight increase in geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal
HF conditions for 22Jan-23Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 29500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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