[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 20 10:45:50 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 1341UT possible lower European
M1.7 2036UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was Moderate.
New region 1041 appeared on the east limb (S27) and is either
returning region 1039 or a new region close by. Region 1041 was
the source of two M-class flares, M2.3 at 1341UT and M1.7 at
2035UT along with numerous C-class events. The solar wind speed
ranged between 350km/s and 330km/s over the UT day. Solar wind
speed is expected to increase in the next 24 hours due to the
expected arrival of a high speed coronal hole windstream. The
Interplanetary magnetic field Bz component ranged between +5nT
and -1nT. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for
the next 3 days with continued C-class events and the chance
of M-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 21110111
Darwin 3 20110112
Townsville 2 21100111
Learmonth 2 20010101
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 2 11110101
Casey(Ant) 6 -3221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0110 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase in the next 24 hours
with a anticipated increase in the solar wind speed due to coronal
hole effects. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 20Jan
with isolated Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are
expected for 21Jan-22Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions observed for all regions
over the last 24 hours. Enhanced conditions during local night
and some depressed periods during local day for Northern AUS
and Equatorial regions. Continued notable sporadic E for Southern
AUS/NZ regions. Mostly normal HF conditons expected for all regions
over the next 24 hours with possible disturbed conditions for
Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions due to geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal ionospheric support for 21Jan-22Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 27000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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