[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 18 10:12:52 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 83/24 83/24 80/20
COMMENT: AR1040 produced two B-class x-ray flares and one C-class
flare over the last 24 hours. Expect only B-class flares from
this region with a slight chance for a C-class flare over the
next three days due to its simple magnetic configuration. The
solar wind declined from 370 to 330 km/s and is expected to remain
around this level till late in the UT day 18 January when a coronal
hole is expected to reach its geo-effective position. The solar
wind speed then is expected to increase to around the 450 km/s
range for the UT day of 19 January. The Interplanetary magnetic
field Bz component ranged between +/-3nT. Noted CME on east limb
of the solar disc, first observed from the SOHO C3 imagery at
06 15UT 17 January. Still in progress at time of report, however
is not expected to be geoeffective. The GOES backgound x-ray
flux is elevated and is expected to remain so until the active
regions rotate around the west limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 2 11101012
Townsville 2 11101011
Learmonth 2 21011001
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 2 11201001
Casey(Ant) 4 ---21112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 6 Quiet
19 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region
and Quiet to Unsettled at polar latitudes over the last 24 hours.
Expect the geomagnetic field to be generally Quiet at all latitudes
till later in the UT day 18 January when the solar wind is expected
to increase causing a minor disturbance in the geomagnetic field.
The polar and southern Australian regions may become unsettled
with isolated cases of active conditions, however the mid to
low latiudes should remain mostly quiet. The unsettled geomagnetic
conditions are expected to last around a day and a half.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values,
due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions, particularly
active spot region 1040. Sporadic E was noted through out the
Australian region with particularly strong cases detected at
Canberra and Sydney stations through out the UT day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 65800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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