[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 17 10:03:18 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: AR1040 produced several B-class x-ray flares over the
last 24 hours. Expect only B-class flares from this region with
a slight chance for a C-class flare over the next three days
due to its simple magnetic configuration. The solar wind declined
from 440 to 360 km/s and is expected to remain around this level
till late in the UT day 18 January when a recurrent coronal hole
is expected to reach its geo-effective position. The solar wind
speed then is expected to return to around the 450 km/s range
for the UT day of 19 January. The Interplanetary magnetic field
Bz component ranged between +4/-3nT. The GOES backgound x-ray
flux is elevated and is expected to remain so until the active
regions rotate around the west limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 22111001
Darwin 2 11111001
Townsville 2 22111000
Learmonth 2 21012000
Canberra 2 13001000
Hobart 2 21111001
Casey(Ant) 7 3--31111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1010 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jan 2 Quiet
18 Jan 6 Quiet
19 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region
and Quiet to Unsettled at polar latitudes over the last 24 hours.
Expect the geomagnetic field to be generally Quiet at all latitudes
for today and most of tomorrow. Late in the UT day 18 January
expect a minor disturbance in the geomagnetic field induced by
an increase in the solar wind speed resulting in mostly unsettled
to isolated cases of active conditions in the polar and southern
Australian regions. Mid to low latiudes are expected to remain
mostly quiet.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal Normal Normal
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jan 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have picked up to near predicted monthly values,
due to ionising EUV and X-ray flux from active regions, particularly
active spot region 1040. Sporadic E was noted through out the
Australian region with particularly strong cases detected at
Canberra, Sydney, and Hobart stations through out the UT day
and in Brisbane during the local night time hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jan
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 67800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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