[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 27 10:33:20 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours.
Active regions 1050 and 1051 have simple magnetic structure and
are not expected to produce any significant activity over the
next three days, however the return of active region 1045 on
28 February may increase activity to Low. The solar wind speed
was at nominal levels of 340 to 410 km/s. Expect the solar wind
to remain in this range until mid UT day on 28 February when
a recurrent coronal hole is expected to be geo-effective.. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+5/-4nT over the last 24 hrs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 21110011
Darwin 2 21100001
Townsville 3 21111111
Learmonth 1 11010001
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 3 12111011
Casey(Ant) 5 33210011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 4 Quiet
28 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly Quiet at low
to mid latitudes with isolated periods of Unsettled to Active
levels in the Antarctic region. This trend is expected to continue
until 28 February when the solar wind speed is expected to increase
resulting in Quiet conditions at low latitudes, Quiet to Unsettled
conditions at mid latitudes and Quiet to Active conditions at
High latitudes with isolated cases of Minor Storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
28 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
01 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong
EUV from the sunspot regions on the disc. Expect similar conditions
over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 44400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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