[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 26 10:29:34 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours.
Active regions 1050 and 1051 have simple magnetic structures and
are not expected to produce any significant flares over the
next three days. The solar wind speed was at nominal levels of
340 to 400 km/s. Expect the solar wind to remain in this range
or slightly above for the next three days. The Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/-6nT over
the last 24 hrs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21110112
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 4 21111122
Learmonth 2 21000112
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 3 21110112
Casey(Ant) 10 33321123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1300 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 4 Quiet
27 Feb 4 Quiet
28 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly Quiet at low
to mid-latitudes with isolated periods of Unsettled to Active
levels in the Antarctic region. This trend is expected to continue
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
27 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
28 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong
EUV from the sunspot regions on the disc. Expect similar conditions
over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 43100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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