[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 24 09:38:09 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the the last 24 hours.
Small B-class x-ray flares occurred during this period. Solar
activity is expected to stay at low to very low levels for the
next three days. Solar wind speed was at nominal levels of 330
to 380 km/s. The absence of impending coronal holes in SOHO or
STEREO spacecraft imagery indicate solar wind speed is expected
to remain in this range for the next three days. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field was +/-5nT over the last
24 hours with no significant southward periods. SOHO LASCO imagery
shows a weak CME at 11UT 22nd Feb but it is from the limb and
not expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 3 21110012
Townsville 4 21111122
Learmonth 3 22110110
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 3 21111111
Casey(Ant) 5 3--21110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 4 Quiet
25 Feb 4 Quiet
26 Feb 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly at Quiet levels
with isolated periods of Unsettled to Active levels in the Antarctic
region. Expect similar conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
25 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
26 Feb 40 10 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong
EUV from the sunspot regions on the disc. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 38300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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