[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 23 10:52:42 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the the last 24 hours.
Several weak B-class x-ray flares occurred during this period.
Solar activity is expected to stay at Very Low levels for the
next three days. Solar wind speed ranged between 340 to 380 km/s
over the UT day and is presently 360km/s. It is expected to remain
in this range for the next three days. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was +/-5nT over the last 24 hours.
LASCO C2 and C3 imagery showed a weak CME on the east limb, first
noted on the 1106UT C2 image. It is not expected to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21121222
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 7 21222223
Learmonth 5 22021221
Canberra 3 11011112
Hobart 5 12121212
Casey(Ant) 7 2-321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 4 Quiet
24 Feb 4 Quiet
25 Feb 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was predominantly at Quiet levels
with isolated periods of Unsettled to Active levels in the Antarctic
region. Expect similar conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
24 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
25 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10
to 30%.
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian/NZ region were
elevated compared with predicted monthly values due to strong
EUV from the three sunspot regions on the disc. Similar conditions
may be expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 23800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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