[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 16 10:54:42 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar Activity was low over the last 24 hours. One
C-class flare was observed during this period. Region
1046(N24W36) is decaying. Solar wind speed stayed between
280 and 320 km/s until around 1700UT and then increased to
360 km/s by the time of this report around 2330UT. A weak
shock was detected at 1725UT possibly due to the CME and
M-flare activity observed on 12 February. The north-south
component Bz of the IMF stayed mostly negative, at times
upto around -13nT today. Solar wind stream may remain
strengthened on 16 and 17 February due to a recurrent
pattern. There is some chance for region 1048 (N21E50)
to produce M-class flare. Solar activity is expected to
stay at low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Feb : A K
Australian Region 11 32122243
Darwin 9 22112243
Townsville 10 22222243
Learmonth 12 22112253
Canberra 8 22122133
Hobart 11 32222243
Casey(Ant) 15 44-32232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0011 1003
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Feb 10 Quiet to unsettled, some active periods possible.
17 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled
18 Feb 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet to active
levels over the UT day today with isolated minor storm period
recorded at one high latitude station. Activity is expected
to remain mostly at quiet to active levels on 16 and 17 February
and then gradually decline to quiet to unsettled levels on 18
February due to an expected weakening in the solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
on 15 February. Minor degradations on low and mid latitudes
and moderate degradations at high latitudes in HF conditions
may be possible for the next two days as geomagnetic activity
may go upto active levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Feb 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values
17 Feb 25 near predicted monthly values
18 Feb 30 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian region were
mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly
values or slightly enhanced. Minor depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions may be possible for the next
two days due an expected continued enhancement in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 32800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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