[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 12 10:53:29 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the the last 24 hours. Active
region 1045 (N22W53) magnetic complexity has simplified to Beta.
Active region 1046 (N23E14) magnetic structure is growing in
complexity. Both regions are capable of producing B and C class
flares over the next three days. There is only a slight chance
for an M class x-ray flare and it is most likely to come from
the growing AR 1046. The solar wind increased from 290 to 380
(possibly due to passing plasma cloud) early in the UT day 11
February and has remain in this range since. It is expected to
remain in this vicinity until late in the UT day 13 February
when it is expected to elevate slightly to just over 400km/s
due to a recurrent coronal. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was southward early in the UT day and turned mostly
northward at approximately 0500UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 22223212
Darwin 8 32223212
Townsville 7 22223211
Learmonth 8 32223212
Canberra 3 12112100
Hobart 7 23212212
Casey(Ant) 8 ---22223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 4 Quiet
13 Feb 6 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the UT day
with an isolated Unsettled to Actived periods early in the UT
day at high latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next three days with a possibility of isolated cases of Unsettled
to Active levels of geomagnetic activity late on 13 February
and on 14 February due to a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian region were
mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly
values or slightly enhanced. There is a slight chance of possible
fades in the sunlit hemisphere throughout the next three days.
Otherwise expect mostly normal or slightly enhanced HF conditions
with MUFs near predicted monthly values. Noted isolated cases
of sporadic E in the Australian and Antarctic regions with
particularly strong sporadic E in Brisbane.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 27000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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