[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 29 10:25:43 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. A CME, that was
observed on 23 December, seems to have impacted the earth. Solar
wind speed increased from 330 to 380 km/s over the last 24 hours.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component turned negative
around 0900UT, went negative upto around -13 nT and stayed negative
till around 1500UT. Bz stayed close to the normal value or slightly
positive during most parts of the remaining day. Solar activity
is expected to remain very low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 16 22325431
Darwin 14 22225332
Townsville 16 22325431
Learmonth 15 22225432
Canberra 14 12225431
Hobart 12 12324430
Casey(Ant) 16 34334322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 5 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
30 Dec 3 Quiet
31 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Earth seems to have been impacted by the CME observed
on 23 December. Bz went negative upto around -13 nT between 0900
and 1500 UT. This resulted in minor storm periods. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with the possibility
of isolated unsettled periods on 29 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions were observed during the
last 24 hours on low and high latitude locations. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected for the next three days
as the solar activity is expected to continue at very low
levels, and hence low ionising radiation is expected during
this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Nearly normal HF conditions were observed today
with isolated periods of minor MUF depressions on low and
high latitudes. Due to continued Very Low levels of solar
activity less ionising radiation is being received. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
Note, seasonal sporadic E may degrade communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 69300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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